I believe the latest threats, including calls to "break the waists of the crazy enemies and totally cut their windpipes", is part of North Korea's continued military brinkmanship. Their main aim is to carve a better position for themselves to bargain from during political and economic negotiations.
However, I think it's important to acknowledge that playing such dangerous games can sometimes have very serious (and often unintended) consequences.
Is North Korea preparing for war?
Probably not. Despite all the fuss made about North Korea's potential nuclear threat, I don't think anyone really believes that they are capable of mounting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile - let alone reaching the US with it.
Considering the increased US missile-defense presence in the area, I'm not even sure how effective a North Korean aerial campaign against South Korea or Japan would be.
So why all the photos of Kim Jong-un posing in front of maps charting missile courses leading to the US mainland?
There are several theories:
- It's a response to the latest round of joint US-South Korean military exercises and economic sanctions.
- Kim Jong-un is trying to establish himself and gain some credibility among North Korea's generals and military leaders.
- This is a test of newly elected first-ever female South Korean president Park Geun-hye
So why the worried faces?
Just because North Korea wouldn't benefit from going to war right now, that doesn't mean it might not accidentally happen.
- North Korea has carried out 3 nuclear tests in recent months.
- They've restarted a plutonium-producing reactor.
- The armistice with the South has officially been broken.
- A shared North-South industrial zone on the border between the two countries has been closed down (something that hasn't happened in any other standoffs)
Kim Jong-un has probably ordered all these moves in an attempt to prove himself to his people and his generals. He wants them to know that he means business.
What I'm worried about is that, like a little brother that keeps annoying his older sibling until he lashes out, Kim Jong-un might be veering dangerously close to retaliation from the South.
South Korea has, up till now, remained fairly reserved in their approach to the North's antics.
They held back when North Korea sank one of their submarines, killing more than 40 people. And it's hard to think of any other country that would have "cooled off" in the same way South Korea did when missiles were hurled at the disputed island of Yeonpyeong.
What I fear is that, if the US-South Korean alliance does actually decide to ramp up their response, this will humiliate Kim Jong-un.
In a culture where public standing, honor and respect are highly valued - all it would take is one loss of face for an insecure and inexperienced leader to lose his cool and make a fatal mistake.
Just look at Bashar Al-Assad of Syria: When he took over after the death of his father, many Western governments courted him, beleiving he was a progressive leader that could lead the Middle East into a more prosperous future.
However, when political unrest sparked up mass protests - the inexperienced Bashar found himself simply following the demands of his family and his father's military generals.
Rather than taking a rational and diplomatic approach, he decided to butcher more than 70,000 people and turn the country into a warzone.
The same thing could happen in North Korea. If the US tries to call Kim Jong-un's bluff, this could provoke a response from North Korea, even if it's the last thing the reclusive country needs.
